Methodology of the fear index

Data originates from real time media monitoring of posts, audio and video transcripts, and comments from over 16 million public Polish social media profiles (X, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, YouTube, TikTok), almost 1,000 newsletters, about 15 thousand podcasts, 1,800 press titles, nearly 400 radio and TV stations, and 420,000 online portals, forums and blogs.

The starting basis for the calculations is publications about the armed conflict in Europe (the Russia-Ukraine war). The index value for individual publications is calculated based on three main factors:

• Keyword weights — each defined phrase has an assigned weight depending on its emotional and contextual significance.
• Phrase position — a keyword appearing in a publication's headline triggers an additional multiplier that increases its weight.
• Gross reach — each publication is assigned a coefficient based on its gross reach on a 1–10 scale.

Daily point totals are expressed on a uniform 0–100 scale. For weekly and monthly intervals, the result is the sum of the points obtained on each day of that period.

• Direct attack — phrases related to direct combat operations, military incidents and rising tension (e.g. shelling, bombing, air raid).
• Weapons and military technology — phrases referring to military equipment, armaments and combat systems (e.g. missile, projectile, tank).
• Strategic escalation — phrases describing the highest level of threat, the risk of global conflict, and the use of means of an ultimate nature (e.g. nuclear weapon, World War III).